Serbia's GDP Grows 4% in Q3, Beating Budget Target as Inflation Climbs
Serbia's economy grew 4% year on year in the third quarter, the statistics office says. MAT notes inflation jumped to 4.1% in September, above the euro area.
Serbia's gross domestic product grew by 4% year on year in real terms in the third quarter of 2026, according to the flash estimate of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (RZS) published on 2 November. Growth has accelerated through the year, from 3.2% in the first quarter and 3.8% in the second. The 2026 budget assumed growth of 3% for the year as a whole.
Where the growth came from
The latest issue of the monthly journal Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends (MAT), reported by Beta, puts growth in the first nine months at about 3.6% and says services, trade and net taxes made the largest contributions. Industrial production rose 3.2% year on year in September, with manufacturing up 5.1%. Goods exports were 8.9% higher in January–September, led by capital and intermediate goods, with motor vehicles the single largest contributor; exports covered 82.6% of imports, compared with 79.5% a year earlier.
Households are spending more. MAT notes that net wages in August were 8.7% higher in real terms than a year earlier and that, according to Eurostat, Serbia recorded the fastest annual growth in real retail trade in Europe in September.
Inflation picks up
The other side of the picture is prices. Consumer price inflation rose from 2.2% in August to 4.1% in September, even though prices grew only 0.2% month on month. MAT attributes part of the jump to a base effect: in September 2025 a government decree capping retail margins had held prices down, and that effect has now dropped out of the annual comparison.
On the harmonised EU measure, Serbia's September inflation was 4.2%, Tanjug reported, against 3.8% in both the EU and the euro area according to Eurostat. Nine of the 27 member states had higher rates, led by Romania (6.5%), Lithuania (6.1%) and Bulgaria (5.6%).
What it means for the new government
The incoming majority will inherit an economy that is growing faster than planned but with inflation above the National Bank of Serbia's 3% target and close to the upper limit of its ±1.5-point tolerance band. The October consumer price index is due from RZS on 12 November and will show whether September was a one-off.
Sources
- N1 — Statistics office: Serbia's GDP growth at 4% in Q3
- Biznis.rs — Serbia's real GDP growth in the third quarter 4% (in Serbian)
- N1 / Beta — MAT: Serbia's growth in the first nine months 3.6% (in Serbian)
- Tanjug — September inflation in Serbia higher than in the EU (in Serbian)
- Eurostat — Annual inflation up to 3.8% in the euro area
This report is written by The Serbian Review from the sources listed above; facts are attributed where they could not be independently verified. Spotted an error? See our Corrections Policy.
