Inflation Jumps to 4.1% as the NBS Holds at 5.75%
September’s consumer-price rise doubled August’s pace, driven by energy, transport and a base effect. Producer prices are climbing faster still.
Consumer prices in Serbia rose 4.1% year on year in September, up from 2.2% in August, the Republic Statistical Office said on 12 October. Month on month, prices rose 0.2%. Energy and transport costs pushed the index higher, as did a low base: retail-margin caps introduced last autumn had held food prices down a year ago.
Rate unchanged
Four days earlier, on 8 October, the National Bank of Serbia kept its key policy rate at 5.75%, with the deposit facility at 4.5% and the lending facility at 7.0%. The rate has not moved since September 2024. The NBS said a prolonged energy shock and rising global commodity prices call for caution and that it would use all instruments if higher oil prices fed through into broader inflation expectations. Erste analysts described the tone as hawkish.
Pressure in the pipeline
Producer prices rose 10.5% year on year in September, the fastest since January 2023, with energy up 23.6% and coke and refined oil products up 68.8%, according to RZS data compiled by Trading Economics. Such increases tend to reach consumer prices with a lag.
The next rate decision is scheduled for 12 November.
Sources
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