Serbia’s Economy After the Vote: What the New Majority Inherits
Growth near 3.8%, record-low unemployment and a central bank on hold — but also inflation back at 4%, an oil refinery on a six-week licence and an Expo deadline a month away.
Serbia’s next government will be formed by a movement that has never governed, but it will not start from a crisis. The economy is growing, employment is at a record high and public debt is moderate. The pressure points lie elsewhere: in energy prices, in the cost and timing of large state projects, and in how quickly an anti-corruption mandate becomes predictable rules for investors.
Growth held up through the summer
Real GDP grew 3.8% year on year in the second quarter, the Republic Statistical Office (RZS) said in its revised estimate, up from a 3.6% flash reading. The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) puts first-half growth at 3.5% and projects 3.2% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027. Unemployment fell to 7.2% in the second quarter, an all-time low, and real wages rose 8.5% year on year in January–July. The first estimate for the third quarter is scheduled for 2 November.
Inflation is back at 4%
Consumer prices rose 4.1% year on year in September, up from 2.2% in August, as energy and transport costs climbed and last year’s retail-margin caps dropped out of the comparison. The NBS kept its key policy rate at 5.75% on 8 October — where it has stood since September 2024 — and said a prolonged energy shock argues for caution.
Public finances
The general government deficit was RSD 109.3bn in January–August, and general government debt stood at 43.6% of GDP at the end of August, according to the NBS.
Three early tests
First, NIS: the country’s only oil refiner remains under US sanctions and now operates on a licence valid until 11 December. Second, Expo 2027: pavilions are due to be handed to participating countries by 1 December. Third, credibility: the Student List campaigned on full transparency in public procurement and audits of state-funded projects. Done well, that could lower risk premia; done abruptly, it could stall contracts already under way.
The list includes Dejan Šoškić, a former NBS governor, but no prime minister or economic team had been named by the time of publication.
Sources
This report is written by The Serbian Review from the sources listed above; facts are attributed where they could not be independently verified. Spotted an error? See our Corrections Policy.
